![]() He succeeded in enacting a package of individual tax cuts in July of 2001 (enacting big cuts in business taxes and extension of the 2001 cuts in 2003). Inheriting a federal budget surplus, Bush made his first big speech to the nation near the end of February of 2001 framing his demands for a major tax cut (on which he had campaigned) as a matter of “asking for a rebate” on behalf of overcharged taxpayers. Bush: A Good Start and Then the Unimaginable The remainder of his presidency was known for a disconnect between his personal problems (culminating in the Lewinsky scandal, an impeachment in the House, and acquittal in the Senate) and the popularity of his policies, which were given credit for a nearly unprecedented economic boom (which was thrown into some disarray by a slump in tech stocks in 1999). After beating back GOP efforts to gut domestic government and then signing a then-popular welfare reform bill, Clinton positioned himself to win a relatively easy reelection. Its failure cast a pall over the 1994 midterm elections, which delivered both Houses of Congress to the Republicans for the first time in four decades, as Clinton’s own job approval ratings dropped into the 40s and occasionally the 30s.Ĭlinton was conspicuously more successful in digging his way out of this hole and using the hubris of Newt Gingrich’s “Republican Revolution” in Congress to outmaneuver his opponents in budget negotiations. But then he was drawn into two big first-year fights over trade policy (NAFTA and GATT) that split Democrats and alienated labor, winning congressional approval only with Republican votes.Ī big part of Clinton’s second year in office was devoted to efforts to enact a health care reform plan that was both complicated and controversial, often called “Hillar圜are” because of the First Lady’s prominent role in the process. ![]() Clinton struggled but eventually succeeded in passing his first budget, which included relatively unpopular tax increases and energy charges, though not until August of 1993. But he stumbled early on with appointments (famously taking three times to find an attorney general who could make it past confirmation hearings) and then fell into Republican traps on stimulus measures that were too easily caricatured as pork (at one point the administration asked state and local governments for wish-lists of projects that could be quickly completed, serving up ripe targets for negative ads. ![]() Indeed, a look at how the 42nd, 43rd, 44th and 45th presidents performed in the first two years is instructive in showing the wide range of directions the Biden presidency could take.īill Clinton: a Rocky Beginning Down a Slippery SlopeĬlinton inherited a slowly improving but still sluggish economy and a Democratic-controlled Congress. Bush, who wound up having very different first-term trajectories. They are actually pretty close at present to those of both Bill Clinton and George W. So it means little that Biden’s initial job approval ratings are lower than those of virtually all of his predecessors other than the man he beat. But as we all understand now, partisan polarization has flattened public sentiment towards presidents, lowering the ceiling and lifting the floor for “successful” and “failed” chief executives alike. Is there some more objective way of adjudging presidential success, particularly early in an administration? Traditionally considerable weight has been placed on presidential job approval ratings, which if nothing else, measure whether a president is building the political capital to sustain success, ideally via reelection and then a shot at Mount Rushmore. And some Democrats are fretting that Biden won’t be as bold in future initiatives (i.e., those not achievable via filibuster-proof budget reconciliation bills) as he was with his first. The small but noisy band of old-school fiscal hawks are sure the stimulus bill will bring the often-predicted return of inflation as an economic problem, along with a revival of austerity politics. Some Republicans and fans of bipartisanship as an end in itself think the 46th president has bought a world of future trouble with that bill by poisoning the well for others. Even critics have to admire his speedy success in passing a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief and stimulus package that could not have survived the smallest of Democratic defections. ![]() We are nearly two months into Joe Biden’s presidency, and observers unsurprisingly differ on how well he is doing. Bush appeals to the country to support his tax cuts in February of 2001.
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